Is it better to guess high or low...?

Question:
Consider the quote "To guess is cheap, to guess incorrectly is expensive".

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Suppose you are working for Daimler/Chrysler and have to "guess" the number of PT Cruisers to be built this Spring. Based on your "guess", parts will be ordered, workers will be scheduled and the cars will be assembled and shipped.

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If your "guess" is too low, you have no inventory, buyers must wait to purchase your car. The problem is that they may not wait. They may purchase another car from your competition.

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If your "guess" is too high, you have a huge inventory. In order to reduce the number of cars on the lot, you must offer rebates, lower the prices, cut back on production and worse, lay off workers.

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Ideally you want to make the "right" guess, the correct number of PT Cruisers built and sold. In the two scenarios described above which is the worse case?

Answers:

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I would say low. Interesting, I have often pondered questions of inventory, especially in food service. I would be terrible at it, because I am by nature a perfectionist (a flaw that causes problems for me, sometimes serious ones). Good question. Still, I say low. Better to wait than to waste.

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consider this."it's better not to guess at all"
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