Is it better to guess high or low...?

Question:
Consider the quote "To guess is cheap, to guess incorrectly is expensive".

Should I buy a car now or wait?

Suppose you are working for Daimler/Chrysler and have to "guess" the number of PT Cruisers to be built this Spring. Based on your "guess", parts will be ordered, workers will be scheduled and the cars will be assembled and shipped.

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If your "guess" is too low, you have no inventory, buyers must wait to purchase your car. The problem is that they may not wait. They may purchase another car from your competition.

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If your "guess" is too high, you have a huge inventory. In order to reduce the number of cars on the lot, you must offer rebates, lower the prices, cut back on production and worse, lay off workers.

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Ideally you want to make the "right" guess, the correct number of PT Cruisers built and sold. In the two scenarios described above which is the worse case?

Answers:

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Guess high. You always want to keep your customers. If they can't get their car and purchase from another competition you would risk losing future business from that customer.

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I want to sell my 1995 single use top condition car maruti 800 in gujarat only.what price it can get me?

You don't "guess" at all in a competitive market.

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You build a JIT supply and distribution system and match production to demand. You minimize inventory and create a network of dealerships which trade inventory to match their customers needs regionally.

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If your model line is so popular you cannot keep up with demand, you start negotiating to buy the factories of your failing competitors and retooling them to increase your manufacturing capability.

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Neither one of your scenarios is a realistic model for success, as demonstrated by both Ford and Chrysler.

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